diff --git a/history.lua b/history.lua
index cffe8cb..bab6314 100644
--- a/history.lua
+++ b/history.lua
@@ -76,6 +76,8 @@ function public.market_value(item_key)
 
 	if day_count == 0 then
 		return daily_market_value
+	elseif correlation < (trend < 1 and trend or 1 / trend) then -- history of bad predictions
+		return EMA7
 	else
 		return EMA7 * trend
 	end